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SUMMARY
Misty murky and foggy today with some patchy light rain possible. Staying misty and murky overnight with the risk of some patchy light drizzle. Mostly light SE’ly winds.

Misty on Friday with low cloud and fog patches. Dry at first but with rain during the afternoon. Light SE’ly winds becoming light and variable for a time then moderate W’ly as the rain clears and fresher and clearer conditions follow overnight.

Saturday mainly dry and bright with the chance of a light shower and fresh NW’ly winds. Dry with sunny spells on Sunday. Easing winds backing light W’ly and later SW’ly. Monday starting dry and bright but SW’ly winds will freshen with rain moving in from the west during the afternoon.

Tuesday cloudy with rain at times. Wednesday perhaps drier and brighter with some sunshine and lighter SW’ly winds. Later in the week possibly turning more changeable and unsettled with stronger SW to W’ly winds.

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GENERAL SITUATION & SYNOPSIS
06:00 UTC 18/09/2014
With a large anticyclone centred to the northeast and a depression slow-moving to the southwest of the British Isles a moist SE’ly airflow covers the Northern Isles. A weakening front will affect the area during the next 24 hours but be pushed away eastwards on Friday by a more active cold front driven east by Icelandic low pressure.

The cold front will clear east later on Friday, introducing a fresher, clearer NW’ly airflow across the Northern Isles overnight.

A ridge is expected to swing east across Scotland over the weekend, with a SW’ly airflow freshening on Monday ahead of fronts pushed east by a depression tracking through the Iceland area.

High pressure over the south of the UK should maintain a not too unsettled SW’ly airflow over northern Scotland at first next week. Later, as the high to the south declines and low pressure deepens to the north a changeable, unsettled and occasionally strong SW to W’ly airflow is expected over northern Scotland.

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FORECAST FOR NEXT THREE DAYS
Confidence level: Confidence level: Weather type – medium/high. Timing – medium.
Daytime temperatures rising to 14° or 15° Celsius, with overnight lows falling to about 10° Celsius.

THURSDAY 18th: Showery rain will affect Fair Isle and Shetland at first, but this will soon clear away northwestwards. Another misty murky and foggy day with some patchy light rain possible. Staying misty and murky through this evening and overnight with the risk of some patchy light drizzle. Mostly F2-3 SE’ly winds.
Sea State: Slight to moderate, occasionally moderate, with a 1 to 2 metre SE’ly wind-swell.

FRIDAY 19th: Another misty day with low cloud and fog patches. Dry at first but with a band of rain moving down from the northwest during the afternoon. F2-3 SE’ly winds becoming light and variable for a time then F4 W’ly as the rain clears and fresher and clearer conditions follow during the evening and overnight.
Sea State: Mainly slight becoming slight to moderate, with a 1 metre SE’ly wind-swell becoming NW’ly wind-and increasing 1 to 2 metres.

SATURDAY 20th: Mainly dry and bright with sunny intervals and the chance of a light shower, this most likely across Shetland. F5 NW’ly winds.
Sea State: Slight to moderate, with a 1 to 2 metre NW’ly wind-swell.

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TEN DAY OUTLOOK
Confidence level: Weather type – medium/low. Timing – low.
Temperatures 13° to 15° Celsius by day down to around 10° Celsius overnight.

SUNDAY 21st: Dry with sunny spells. Easing NW’ly winds backing light W’ly and later light SW’ly.
Sea State: Slight, with a 1 metre NW’ly wind-swell turning SW’ly.

MONDAY 22nd: Starting dry and bright but clouding over as SW’ly winds freshen, with rain moving in from the west during the afternoon. Further rain overnight.
Sea State: Perhaps slight to moderate, with a 1 to 2 metre SW’ly wind-swell.

TUESDAY 23rd – SUNDAY 28th: Cloudy with rain at times on Tuesday with fresh SW’ly winds. Wednesday perhaps drier and brighter with some sunshine and lighter SW’ly winds. Later in the week possibly turning more changeable and unsettled with stronger SW to W’ly winds.
Sea State on Tuesday: Possibly mostly moderate, with a 2 metre SW to W’ly wind-swell.

10-Day Weather Outlook
for Shetland, Orkney and Caithness

Page updated
Thursday 18 September, 2014 12:42

WEATHER HEADLINES

Today

Dull and misty. Some patchy rain. Light winds.

  Tonight

Mist low cloud and patchy fog. Some drizzle. Light winds.

  Tomorrow

Mist, low cloud and fog. Then rain followed by clearer conditions. Fresher winds.

  Days 3 5

Drier and brighter. Lighter winds.

Days 6-10

Becoming unsettled and changeable. Strong winds.

 

FAIR ISLE WEATHER DATA
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Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9)
16th December 2006, 0904z
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9) Looking NNE
.
Showery SW to W'ly airflow
Temp 6.1°C, dew point 1.6°C, wind 240° 17kt

Cumulus mediocris developing over Fair Isle
24th May 2006, 1300z
Cumulus mediocris developing over Fair Isle
and forming a 'clouc street' downwind
of the Isle (CL2)
Temp 9.0°C, dew point 4.5°C, wind F2 S'ly.
Stratocumulus formed from the spreading out of cumulus
24th May 2006, 2001z
Stratocumulus formed from the
spreading out of cumulus (CL4)

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
Approaching shower. Cumulonimbus with anvil
24th May 2006, 2016z
Approaching shower.
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9)

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
Showers over Shetland and passing through the Fair Isle Channel
24th May 2006, 2034z
Showers over Shetland and passing through
the Fair Isle Channel. Cumulonimbus with anvil

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly

 

Fair Isle, South LighthouseFair Isle, South Lighthouse


Full moon rising
1700 UTC 25th October

Full moon rising


SYNOPSIS DAYS 1-3 DAYS 4-10
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Shetland Weather Review
2004-2010
 

 

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DISCLAIMER
This outlook is based on an appraisal of the charts and ensembles from GFS, ECMWF, UKMO and FAX available via the internet, and over 30 years of local weather experience.

Be aware that the weather over north-west Europe - and especially around the Northern Isles - is part of an ever-changing and dynamic system. Therefore regard the 10-Day Outlook' as a guide only - there are times when any outlook going beyond about 36 to 48 hours is likely to prove unreliable.

Always check the latest forecast from the UK Met Office before undertaking any weather-dependant activity.

All forecasts are for planning purposes only.

Neither Dave Wheeler, nor any employee of Fair Isle Weather Services, accepts any liability for the accuracy of this forecast.


Please note that this page is usually updated every day (around mid-morning) but on occasions updates may be irregular. A daily service by e-mail is available, but is charged for.

If you wish you can have the 10-day Outlook e-mailed to you free once a week (usually at the weekend). Please contact Fair Isle Weather Services for further information
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aurura glow

Aurora glow, looking north towards Ward Hill
(l ights of Setter croft foreground)
Photograph taken about 2100UTC 18th October 2007
Pentax K10D with Pentax DA 16-45mm F4 w/a lens set at 16mm
Exposure 193 seconds at F5.6 ISO100

AuroraWatch www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/aurorawatch/

 

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