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SUMMARY

Extensive low cloud, mist and fog over Orkney and Fair Isle soon extending into Shetland. The best of any brightness will be in the west. Fresh SE’ly winds. Remaining cloudy and misty tonight with hill and coastal fog patches. Outbreaks of light rain may occur later in night. SE’ly winds increasing fresh to strong.

Staying grey and murky through Thursday with outbreaks of mainly light rain. During the afternoon Shetland should become drier and brighter. Strong SE’ly winds easing later.

Rather cloudy with low cloud, fog patches and outbreaks of rain through Friday. Generally drier and brighter through the weekend, though a continuing risk of low cloud and fog patches.

Monday and Tuesday perhaps mainly dry and bright with light E’ly winds. The middle part of next week perhaps bright with showers and cooler as strengthening NE’ly winds back N’ly. The end of the week and following weekend possibly mainly dry and bright with light N’ly winds and risk of overnight frosts.

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GENERAL SITUATION & SYNOPSIS
06:00 UTC 23/04/2014

With pressure high to the northeast and low to the west a moist SE’ly airflow covers the Northern Isles. Relatively weak fronts will affect the Northern Isles during the next 36 to 48 hours.

On Friday high pressure is expected to build towards the Northern Isles, pushing the fronts away to the west.

Forecasts suggest that next weekend a depression will move from Biscay across the UK and then over the North Sea during the first part of next week. As it does so a strengthening SE’ly airflow across the Northern Isles will back E to NE’ly.

Current predictions suggest low pressure to the east of the UK will gradually transfer northeast into Scandinavia during the course of next week, with a strengthening NE’ly airflow over the Northern Isles backing N’ly as low pressure transfers into Scandinavia.

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FORECAST FOR NEXT THREE DAYS
Confidence level: Confidence level: Weather type – medium/high. Timing – medium.
Temperatures rising to around 10° Celsius by day along eastern coasts, 11° or 12° Celsius in the sheltered west. Down to about 6° Celsius overnight.

WEDNESDAY 23rd: A little patchy light rain possible across Shetland at first otherwise mainly dry but cloudy across the Northern Isles. Extensive low cloud, mist and fog over Orkney and Fair Isle soon extending into Shetland. The best of any brightness will be in the west. F5 SE’ly winds. Remaining cloudy and misty tonight with hill and coastal fog patches, mainly over eastern areas while western parts could see some clearer spells. Outbreaks of light rain may occur later in night. SE’ly winds increasing F5-6.
Sea State: Moderate to rough, with a 2 to 3 metre SE to E’ly wind-swell.

THURSDAY 24th: Staying grey and murky with mist, fog patches and outbreaks of mainly light rain. During the afternoon Shetland should become drier and brighter. F6 SE’ly winds easing later..
Sea State: Moderate to rough, with a 2 to 3 metre SE’ly wind-swell.

FRIDAY 25th: Rather cloudy with low cloud, fog patches and outbreaks of rain.
Sea State: Perhaps mainly moderate, with a 2 metre SE to E’ly wind-swell.

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TEN DAY OUTLOOK
Confidence level: Weather type – medium/low. Timing – low.
Temperatures around 10° Celsius by day down to about 6° Celsius overnight.

SATURDAY 26th: Dry and bright start but rain soon arriving in Orkney. Shetland perhaps staying dry and brighter. Moderate or fresh SE to E’ly winds bringing the risk of low cloud and fog patches along eastern coasts.
Sea State: Perhaps slight to moderate, with a 1 to 2 metre SE to E’ly wind-swell.

SUNDAY 27th: Drier and brighter, though still the risk of low cloud and fog patches at first. Moderate or fresh E’ly winds backing NE’ly
Sea State: Possibly slight to moderate, with a 1 to 2 metre E’ly wind-swell turning NE’ly.

MONDAY 28th – SATURDAY 3rd: Monday perhaps mainly dry and bright with some showers and moderate or fresh NE’ly winds. The remainder of the week possibly bright with showers and cooler as strengthening NE’ly winds back N’ly.
Sea State Monday: Possibly slight to moderate, with a 1 to 2 metre NE’ly wind-swell.

10-Day Weather Outlook
for Shetland, Orkney and Caithness

Page updated
Wednesday 23 April, 2014 12:14

WEATHER HEADLINES

Today

Mist and fog.

  Tonight

Mist and fog. Some rain later. Windy.

  Tomorrow

Misty with patchy rain.

  Days 3 5

Becoming drier and brighter, but risk of mist and low cloud. Winds easing.

Days 6-10

Perhaps mostly dry and bright. Windy for a time

 

FAIR ISLE WEATHER DATA
via WeatherCast

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Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9)
16th December 2006, 0904z
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9) Looking NNE
.
Showery SW to W'ly airflow
Temp 6.1°C, dew point 1.6°C, wind 240° 17kt

Cumulus mediocris developing over Fair Isle
24th May 2006, 1300z
Cumulus mediocris developing over Fair Isle
and forming a 'clouc street' downwind
of the Isle (CL2)
Temp 9.0°C, dew point 4.5°C, wind F2 S'ly.
Stratocumulus formed from the spreading out of cumulus
24th May 2006, 2001z
Stratocumulus formed from the
spreading out of cumulus (CL4)

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
Approaching shower. Cumulonimbus with anvil
24th May 2006, 2016z
Approaching shower.
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9)

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
Showers over Shetland and passing through the Fair Isle Channel
24th May 2006, 2034z
Showers over Shetland and passing through
the Fair Isle Channel. Cumulonimbus with anvil

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly

 

Fair Isle, South LighthouseFair Isle, South Lighthouse


Full moon rising
1700 UTC 25th October

Full moon rising


SYNOPSIS DAYS 1-3 DAYS 4-10
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Shetland Weather Review
2004-2010
 

 

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DISCLAIMER
This outlook is based on an appraisal of the charts and ensembles from GFS, ECMWF, UKMO and FAX available via the internet, and over 30 years of local weather experience.

Be aware that the weather over north-west Europe - and especially around the Northern Isles - is part of an ever-changing and dynamic system. Therefore regard the 10-Day Outlook' as a guide only - there are times when any outlook going beyond about 36 to 48 hours is likely to prove unreliable.

Always check the latest forecast from the UK Met Office before undertaking any weather-dependant activity.

All forecasts are for planning purposes only.

Neither Dave Wheeler, nor any employee of Fair Isle Weather Services, accepts any liability for the accuracy of this forecast.


Please note that this page is usually updated every day (around mid-morning) but on occasions updates may be irregular. A daily service by e-mail is available, but is charged for.

If you wish you can have the 10-day Outlook e-mailed to you free once a week (usually at the weekend). Please contact Fair Isle Weather Services for further information
.


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aurura glow

Aurora glow, looking north towards Ward Hill
(l ights of Setter croft foreground)
Photograph taken about 2100UTC 18th October 2007
Pentax K10D with Pentax DA 16-45mm F4 w/a lens set at 16mm
Exposure 193 seconds at F5.6 ISO100

AuroraWatch www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/aurorawatch/

 

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