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SUMMARY

Windy today with frequent squally blustery showers, with hail and thunder, the showers turning to sleet in the afternoon. Strong W to NWly winds, with gales over Orkney. Wintry showers tonight with snow across the high ground, but perhaps at lower levels for a time. Some drifting in the strong to gale-force W to NWly winds.

Blustery wintry showers on Thursday, mostly of rain, sleet and hail at first, but turning back to snow later. Strong Wly winds veering Nly and increasing to severe gale force later perhaps with locally very poor travel conditions.

Bitterly cold on Friday with snow showers, possibly resulting in several centimeters of lying snow in places at low levels and greater accumulations over high ground where drifting may occur in the strong to gale-force NWly winds.

A cold weekend with wintry showers dying out on Saturday as fresh NWly winds ease. Sunday mainly dry and bright with winds falling light. Widespread frosts overnight leading to icy conditions. Probably a fine, dry start to the week with light winds, sunny days and cold, frosty nights. Perhaps becoming milder by midweek with freshening SWly winds and the chance of a little rain.

 

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GENERAL SITUATION AND SYNOPSIS 06:00 UTC 11/01/2017

With a depression in the southern Norwegian Sea a strong, cool and showery Wly airflow covers the north of Scotland.

As the depression moves east into Scandinavia during the airflow will turn NWly during Thursday and then Nly by Friday, dragging colder Arctic air southwards as it does so.

The strong airflow is expected to ease over the weekend as pressure builds from the west, with a ridge of high pressure toppling east across Scotland early next week forecast to cut off the Arctic airflow.

While pressure is predicted to remain relatively high across southern Britain next week, Atlantic low pressure may bring a milder SWly airflow over the Northern Isles.

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FORECAST FOR NEXT THREE DAYS 

Temperatures today rising to 4 or 5 Celsius, down to 0 Celsius tonight. On Thursday and Friday a high of 3 or 4 Celsius, with overnight lows of 0 or 1 Celsius.

WEDNESDAY 11th: Windy with frequent squally blustery showers, with hail and thunder, the showers turning to sleet in the afternoon. F6-7 W to NWly winds, reaching gale F8 over Orkney. Wintry showers, frequent at times this evening with snow across the high ground, but also at lower levels for a time overnight. Some drifting on high ground in the F6 to gale F8 W to NWly winds.
Sea State: Rough to high, with a 3 to 8 metre NWly wind-swell. Highest in the northwest.

THURSDAY 12th: Blustery wintry showers continuing through the day, mostly of rain, sleet and hail at first, but turning back to snow later. F6-7 Wly winds veering Nly and increasing tF7 to gale F8, locally severe gale F9 later a combination which could lead to locally very poor travel conditions. With the likelihood of lightning in the heavier showers there is the potential for some disruption of power supplies.
Sea State: Rough to high, with a 4 to 9 metre NWly wind-swell. Highest in the northwest.

FRIDAY 13th: Bitterly cold with snow showers, possibly resulting in several centimeters of lying snow in places at low levels and 10-20cms over high ground where drifting may occur in the F6 to gale F8 NWly winds. Winds are expected to ease F5-6 later.
Sea State: Very rough to high, with a 6 to 8 metre NW to Nly wind-swell. Highest in the north.

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TEN DAY OUTLOOK

Cold at first with daytime temperatures of 3 or 4 Celsius and overnight lows of 1 Celsius. Then becoming milder with highs of 7 or 8 Celsius and lows of 4 to 6 Celsius.

SATURDAY 14th: A cold day with wintry showers dying out as fresh NWly winds ease.
Sea State: Very rough, with a 4 to 5 metre NW to Nly wind-swell.

SUNDAY 15th: Mainly dry and bright with winds falling light. Widespread frost overnight leading to icy patches on untreated surfaces.
Sea State: Moderate to rough, with a 2 to 4 metre W or NWly wind-swell. Highest in the west.

MONDAY 16th - SATURDAY 21st: Probably a fine, dry start to the week with light winds, sunny days and cold, frosty nights. Perhaps becoming milder by midweek with freshening SWly winds and the chance of a little rain.
Sea State Monday: Moderate to rough, with a 2 to 3 metre SW to Wly wind-swell. Highest in the west.

 

10-Day Weather Outlook
for Shetland, Orkney and Caithness

 

WEATHER HEADLINES
11/01/2017

  Today

Squally showers turning wintry. Windy with gales across Orkney.

  Tonight

Chance of snow. Windy.

  Tomorrow

Blustery wintry showers turning back to snow later. Very windy with gales later. Feeling bitterly cold.

  Days 3 5

Further snow and hail showers on Friday and Saturday, then drier and brighter on Sunday. Very strong winds easing on Saturday, then light on Sunday.

Days 6-10

A fine, dry start with light winds and frosty nights. Perhaps becoming milder by midweek with the chance of a little rain.

 

FAIR ISLE WEATHER DATA
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Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9)
16th December 2006, 0904z
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9) Looking NNE
.
Showery SW to W'ly airflow
Temp 6.1°C, dew point 1.6°C, wind 240° 17kt

Cumulus mediocris developing over Fair Isle
24th May 2006, 1300z
Cumulus mediocris developing over Fair Isle
and forming a 'clouc street' downwind
of the Isle (CL2)
Temp 9.0°C, dew point 4.5°C, wind F2 S'ly.
Stratocumulus formed from the spreading out of cumulus
24th May 2006, 2001z
Stratocumulus formed from the
spreading out of cumulus (CL4)

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
Approaching shower. Cumulonimbus with anvil
24th May 2006, 2016z
Approaching shower.
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9)

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
Showers over Shetland and passing through the Fair Isle Channel
24th May 2006, 2034z
Showers over Shetland and passing through
the Fair Isle Channel. Cumulonimbus with anvil

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly

 

Fair Isle, South LighthouseFair Isle, South Lighthouse


Full moon rising
1700 UTC 25th October

Full moon rising


SYNOPSIS DAYS 1-3 DAYS 4-10
Disclaimer CHARTS


Shetland Weather Review
2004-2010

 

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DISCLAIMER
This outlook is based on an appraisal of the charts and ensembles from GFS, ECMWF, UKMO and FAX available via the internet, and over 30 years of local weather experience.

Be aware that the weather over north-west Europe - and especially around the Northern Isles - is part of an ever-changing and dynamic system. Therefore regard the 10-Day Outlook' as a guide only - there are times when any outlook going beyond about 36 to 48 hours is likely to prove unreliable.

Always check the latest forecast from the UK Met Office before undertaking any weather-dependant activity.

All forecasts are for planning purposes only.

Neither Dave Wheeler, nor any employee of Fair Isle Weather Services, accepts any liability for the accuracy of this forecast.


Please note that this page is usually updated every day (around mid-morning) but on occasions updates may be irregular. A daily service by e-mail is available, but is charged for.

If you wish you can have the 10-day Outlook e-mailed to you free once a week (usually at the weekend). Please contact Fair Isle Weather Services for further information
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aurura glow

Aurora glow, looking north towards Ward Hill
(l ights of Setter croft foreground)
Photograph taken about 2100UTC 18th October 2007
Pentax K10D with Pentax DA 16-45mm F4 w/a lens set at 16mm
Exposure 193 seconds at F5.6 ISO100

AuroraWatch www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/aurorawatch/

 

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Reflections of Shetland - a set of four DVD’s showing a personal view of the changing seasons of Shetland inspired by John J. Graham’s poem. 

 

 

 
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Bright with an occasional shower. Light winds freshening across Shetland.

Orkney becoming warm dry and bright as rain moves on into Shetland, before clearing later. Breezy.