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SUMMARY

Bright spells and blustery occasionally heavy showers today. Fresh to strong SW to W値y winds, increasing strong to gale-force later. Turning cooler with the showers wintry across the hills. Frequent showers tonight, heavy and wintry at times with snow possibly settling over hills. Strong to gale force W値y winds.

Colder on Friday with increasingly wintry and possibly thundery showers. Strong NW値y winds. Saturday becoming drier and brighter as strong NW値y winds ease and back W to SW値y later. A cold evening but turning milder overnight as S値y winds strengthen. Cloud and rain spreading east on Sunday. Milder with strong SW値y winds.

Rain clearing to brighter showery conditions for Monday with strong SW値y winds. Perhaps turning colder on Tuesday with strong W to NW値y winds and wintry showers.

Scattered showers on Christmas Eve with fresh to strong SW to W値y winds. Christmas Day cold with wintry showers and moderate or fresh NW to N値y winds. A cold frosty night. NW値y winds strengthening on Boxing Day with wintry showers more frequent.

Drier, brighter and less windy for a time with scattered wintry showers and nighttime frosts as NW値y winds ease. Milder again over the weekend with strengthening SE値y winds.

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GENERAL SITUATION AND SYNOPSIS 06:00 UTC 18/12/2014

With a deep depression over Iceland a cool, strengthening SW to W値y airflow covers northern Scotland. This will veer strong W to NW値y by Friday as the low continues east into the Norwegian Sea,

The airflow will ease and back SW on Saturday as the filling depression moves away into Scandinavia and a ridge follows late in the day. A further deep depression is expected to track east over Iceland on Sunday, driving fronts across the Northern Isles during the day with a strong SW値y airflow veering W値y as they clear early on Monday.

The current forecast is for a fresh to strong W値y airflow to veer to a colder NW or N値y during the Christmas Period as the filling low continues east to the north of Shetland.

Prognosis suggests the week ending cold with an easing airflow as a ridge moves east over northern Scotland. Possibly milder later as Atlantic low pressure approaches the British Isles and a SE値y airflow develops over northeast Scotland.

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FORECAST FOR NEXT THREE DAYS 

Temperatures 6ー or 7ー Celsius by day and 3ー or 4ー Celsius overnight.

THURSDAY 18th: Bright spells and blustery showers, the showers heavy at times and most frequent in the west. Feeling chilly in the F5-6 SW to W値y winds, these increasing F6 to gale F8 later. Turning cooler with the showers wintry across the hills. A few clear spells in the east overnight, otherwise frequent showers, heavy and wintry at times with snow possibly settling over hills. F7 to gale F8 W値y winds, perhaps severe across the more exposed parts of Orkney.
Sea State: In the west perhaps very rough to high, with a 5 to 7 metre W値y wind-swell. In the east rough or very rough, with a 3 to 5 metre W値y wind-swell.

FRIDAY 19th: Colder with increasingly wintry and possibly thundery showers as F6 to gale F8 W値y winds veer F6-7 NW値y. The showers falling as rain, sleet and hail at low levels with wet snow across the hills.
Sea State: In the east possibly rough to very rough, with a 3 to 5 metre W to NW値y wind-swell. In the west rough or very rough, with a 5 to 7 metre W or NW値y wind-swell.

SATURDAY 20th: Windy with wintry showers at first, then drier and brighter. F6 NW値y winds easing and backing F3-4 W to SW値y later. A cold evening but turning milder overnight as S値y winds strengthen F6.
Sea State: In the east rough to very rough, with a 3 to 5 metre W to NW値y wind-swell. In the west rough to very rough or high, with a 4 to 6 metre W or NW値y wind-swell.

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TEN DAY OUTLOOK

Temperatures in the range around 7ー Celsius by day down to about 5ー Celsius overnight. Perhaps a degree or so colder later.

SUNDAY 21st: Wet, windy and milder for a time. Periods of rain, heavy at times with some drier interludes between. Strong SW to W値y winds possibly easing across Orkney around the middle of the day.
Sea State: In the west rough to very rough, with a 4 to 5 metre W値y wind-swell. In the east rough, with a 3 to 4 metre W値y wind-swell.

MONDAY 22nd: Overnight rain clearing to leave a brighter showery day with strong SW値y winds.
Sea State: In the west very rough to high, with a 5 to 7 metre W値y wind-swell. In the east rough to very rough, with a 3 to 5 metre W値y wind-swell.

CHRISTMAS PERIOD, TUESDAY 23rd SATURDAY 27th: Perhaps turning colder on Tuesday with wintry showers. Strong W to NW値y winds easing later. Less cold on Christmas Eve with scattered showers and fresh to strong SW to W値y winds. Colder again on Christmas Day with moderate or fresh NW to N値y winds. A cold frosty night. NW値y winds strengthening on Boxing Day with wintry showers more frequent, possibly a longer period of rain or sleet with snow over the hills. Drier, brighter and less windy for a time with scattered wintry showers and nighttime frosts as NW値y winds ease. Milder again over the weekend with strengthening SE値y winds.
Sea State Tuesday: Possibly rough, with a 3 to 4 metre W値y wind-swell.

 

10-Day Weather Outlook
for Shetland, Orkney and Caithness

Page updated
Thursday 18 December, 2014 11:35

WEATHER HEADLINES

I will be away from Fair Isle from
Wednesday 17th December until Tuesday 13th Januar.
During this periods updates are likely to be irregular
and webcam pictures will not be updating.

  Today

Windy with blustery showers. Some brighter spells.

  Tonight

Windy with wintry showers.

  Tomorrow

Wintry showers. Windy.

  Days 3 5

Saturday becoming drier and brighter as winds ease. Sunday wet and windy. Monday breezy, brighter and showery.

Days 6-10

Turning colder. Wintry showers. Strong winds easing.

 

FAIR ISLE WEATHER DATA
via WeatherCast

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Fair Isle MetCam1 (Axis 207W)
Fair Isle, looking north from the office window

Fair Isle MetCam2 (Axis 207W)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=os&fcTime=1418169600


Fair Isle, looking approx. ESE towards 400' high Sheep Rock
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Fair Isle landscape pictures available for online purchase at http://www.davewheelerphotography.com
Link on home or landscape gallery page.


 

Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9)
16th December 2006, 0904z
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9) Looking NNE
.
Showery SW to W'ly airflow
Temp 6.1°C, dew point 1.6°C, wind 240° 17kt

Cumulus mediocris developing over Fair Isle
24th May 2006, 1300z
Cumulus mediocris developing over Fair Isle
and forming a 'clouc street' downwind
of the Isle (CL2)
Temp 9.0°C, dew point 4.5°C, wind F2 S'ly.
Stratocumulus formed from the spreading out of cumulus
24th May 2006, 2001z
Stratocumulus formed from the
spreading out of cumulus (CL4)

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
Approaching shower. Cumulonimbus with anvil
24th May 2006, 2016z
Approaching shower.
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9)

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
Showers over Shetland and passing through the Fair Isle Channel
24th May 2006, 2034z
Showers over Shetland and passing through
the Fair Isle Channel. Cumulonimbus with anvil

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly

 

Fair Isle, South LighthouseFair Isle, South Lighthouse


Full moon rising
1700 UTC 25th October

Full moon rising


SYNOPSIS DAYS 1-3 DAYS 4-10
Disclaimer CHARTS


Shetland Weather Review
2004-2010

 

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DISCLAIMER
This outlook is based on an appraisal of the charts and ensembles from GFS, ECMWF, UKMO and FAX available via the internet, and over 30 years of local weather experience.

Be aware that the weather over north-west Europe - and especially around the Northern Isles - is part of an ever-changing and dynamic system. Therefore regard the 10-Day Outlook' as a guide only - there are times when any outlook going beyond about 36 to 48 hours is likely to prove unreliable.

Always check the latest forecast from the UK Met Office before undertaking any weather-dependant activity.

All forecasts are for planning purposes only.

Neither Dave Wheeler, nor any employee of Fair Isle Weather Services, accepts any liability for the accuracy of this forecast.


Please note that this page is usually updated every day (around mid-morning) but on occasions updates may be irregular. A daily service by e-mail is available, but is charged for.

If you wish you can have the 10-day Outlook e-mailed to you free once a week (usually at the weekend). Please contact Fair Isle Weather Services for further information
.


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aurura glow

Aurora glow, looking north towards Ward Hill
(l ights of Setter croft foreground)
Photograph taken about 2100UTC 18th October 2007
Pentax K10D with Pentax DA 16-45mm F4 w/a lens set at 16mm
Exposure 193 seconds at F5.6 ISO100

AuroraWatch www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/aurorawatch/

 

fi_icon.jpg (6117 bytes)

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Reflections of Shetland - a set of four DVD’s showing a personal view of the changing seasons of Shetland inspired by John J. Graham’s poem. 

 

 

 
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Bright with an occasional shower. Light winds freshening across Shetland.