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SUMMARY
Mist fog and low cloud will be widespread first today, with warm sunshine developing in the west during the morning. Staying cooler in the east where the haar will persist. Light E’ly winds. The haar extending back across all parts again tonight.

The haar will again thin at times across the west on Friday with some warm sunshine coming through. Mist and fog persisting across eastern coasts and extending westwards again overnight. Light E’ly winds.

Staying cloudy with mist and fog on Saturday with the likelihood of some rain. Perhaps some rain on Sunday then brighter with a few showers and mostly light W or NW’ly winds. Drier and brighter on Monday with mainly light NW to N’ly winds. Cloudy on Tuesday with rain, mist and mostly light SW’ly winds.

Midweek then changeable and brighter with some rain or showers and fresher SW to W’ly winds. The latter part and following weekend possibly mostly dry and settled again with light winds and the risk of haar.

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GENERAL SITUATION & SYNOPSIS
06:00 UTC 24/07/2014
With high pressure centred northeast of Shetland a warm, moist and light SE to E’ly airflow covers northeast Scotland.

Little change is expected on Friday. Over the weekend a weak frontal trough is expected to move east across the Northern Isles on Saturday with a declining ridge of high pressure following from the west later on Sunday.

During the first part of next week further weak fronts are forecast to move east. For a time midweek falling pressure between Scotland and Iceland could introduce a fresher and less settled W’ly airflow over the Northern Isles before pressure again builds later in the week and during the following weekend.

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FORECAST FOR NEXT THREE DAYS
Confidence level: Confidence level: Weather type – medium/high. Timing – medium.
Daytime temperatures rising to 15° or 16° Celsius in the mist, 18° to 21° Celsius in the sunshine and in a few favoured spots in the west perhaps 22° Celsius to possibly 24° Celsius. Overnight lows falling to 12° or 13° Celsius.

THURSDAY 24th: Mist fog and low cloud will be widespread across the Isles at first, though it will burn back from the west through the morning with sunny spells developing in the west of both Orkney and Shetland where it will become very warm as the sun breaks through. Staying cooler in the east where the haar will persist, carried onshore by a F2-3 E’ly breeze. Some evening sunshine in the west but the haar will drift west to all parts again overnight.
Sea State: Smooth to slight, with a 1 metre or less SE to E’ly wind-swell.

FRIDAY 25tht: Haar will be widespread at first, but this will again thin at times across the west with some very warm sunshine developing in places. Mist and fog persisting across eastern coasts. Light F2-3 E’ly winds.
Sea State: Smooth or slight, with a 1 metre or less SE to E’ly wind-swell.

SATURDAY 26th: Staying cloudy with mist and fog with the likelihood of some showers and a longer period of rain overnight. Light SE’ly winds.
Sea State: Smooth or slight, with a 1 metre or less SE’ly wind-swell turning W’ly later.

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TEN DAY OUTLOOK
Confidence level: Weather type – medium/low. Timing – low.
Daytime temperatures rising to 17° to 19° Celsius but perhaps a degree or so cooler on Sunday and again midweek. Overnight lows falling to around 12° Celsius.

SUNDAY 27th: Becoming brighter and drier after rain and mist with a few showers and a fresher feel to the weather as mostly light SE’ly winds become NE or N’ly in direction.
Sea State: Smooth or slight, with a 1 metre or less SE’ly wind-swell turning NE to N’ly.

MONDAY 28th: Rather cloudy at times but mostly dry with mainly light or moderate NW to N’ly winds.
Sea State: Perhaps mostly slight, with a 1 metre NW to N’ly wind-swell..

TUESDAY 29th – SUNDAY 3rd: Cloudy on Tuesday with outbreaks of rain and misty conditions. Light SW’ly winds. Midweek then changeable and brighter with some rain or showers and fresher SW to W’ly winds. The latter part and following weekend possibly mostly dry and settled again with light winds and the risk of haar.
Sea State on Tuesday: Possibly mostly slight, with a 1 metre or less SW’ly wind-swell.

10-Day Weather Outlook
for Shetland, Orkney and Caithness

Page updated
Thursday 24 July, 2014 12:54

WEATHER HEADLINES

Today

Warm sunshine developing in the west. Mist and fog persisting in the cooler east. Light winds.

  Tonight

Dry with light winds. Fog and low cloud extensive.

  Tomorrow

Becoming warm and sunny in west. East cooler with extensive haar. Light winds.

  Days 3 5

Mist and fog in the east. Light winds. Cooler with some rain.

Days 6-10

Risk of mist and fog. Fresher winds midweek with chance of rain. Settled again later with light winds.

 

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Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9)
16th December 2006, 0904z
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9) Looking NNE
.
Showery SW to W'ly airflow
Temp 6.1°C, dew point 1.6°C, wind 240° 17kt

Cumulus mediocris developing over Fair Isle
24th May 2006, 1300z
Cumulus mediocris developing over Fair Isle
and forming a 'clouc street' downwind
of the Isle (CL2)
Temp 9.0°C, dew point 4.5°C, wind F2 S'ly.
Stratocumulus formed from the spreading out of cumulus
24th May 2006, 2001z
Stratocumulus formed from the
spreading out of cumulus (CL4)

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
Approaching shower. Cumulonimbus with anvil
24th May 2006, 2016z
Approaching shower.
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9)

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
Showers over Shetland and passing through the Fair Isle Channel
24th May 2006, 2034z
Showers over Shetland and passing through
the Fair Isle Channel. Cumulonimbus with anvil

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly

 

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Full moon rising
1700 UTC 25th October

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Shetland Weather Review
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DISCLAIMER
This outlook is based on an appraisal of the charts and ensembles from GFS, ECMWF, UKMO and FAX available via the internet, and over 30 years of local weather experience.

Be aware that the weather over north-west Europe - and especially around the Northern Isles - is part of an ever-changing and dynamic system. Therefore regard the 10-Day Outlook' as a guide only - there are times when any outlook going beyond about 36 to 48 hours is likely to prove unreliable.

Always check the latest forecast from the UK Met Office before undertaking any weather-dependant activity.

All forecasts are for planning purposes only.

Neither Dave Wheeler, nor any employee of Fair Isle Weather Services, accepts any liability for the accuracy of this forecast.


Please note that this page is usually updated every day (around mid-morning) but on occasions updates may be irregular. A daily service by e-mail is available, but is charged for.

If you wish you can have the 10-day Outlook e-mailed to you free once a week (usually at the weekend). Please contact Fair Isle Weather Services for further information
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aurura glow

Aurora glow, looking north towards Ward Hill
(l ights of Setter croft foreground)
Photograph taken about 2100UTC 18th October 2007
Pentax K10D with Pentax DA 16-45mm F4 w/a lens set at 16mm
Exposure 193 seconds at F5.6 ISO100

AuroraWatch www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/aurorawatch/

 

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