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SUMMARY
A cloudy start today with outbreaks of showery rain then brighter with a few showers. Strong SW’ly winds easing and veering W’ly. A few showers overnight, mainly affecting Orkney. Winds easing and veering NW’ly.

Thursday bright with scattered showers becoming isolated. Moderate NW’ly winds. Brighter and mostly dry on Friday with light winds.

Bright at first on Saturday then cloudy and misty with outbreaks of rain. Mostly moderate E’ly winds backing NE’ly. Early rain on Sunday then drier but with some mist and low cloud. Light or moderate N to NW’ly winds.

Next week possibly mostly dry but with the risk of haar as mainly moderate winds turn SE’ly.

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GENERAL SITUATION & SYNOPSIS
06:00 UTC 30/07/2014
As a depression to the north of Shetland moves away over the Norwegian Sea a strong and showery W’ly airflow will veer fresh NW’ly today and ease further during Thursday then fall light on Friday as pressure builds over the Northern Isles.

During the weekend shallow low pressure developing over the UK and then moving north will bring a SE to E’ly backing NE’ly as the low moves out over the northern North Sea and fronts are pushed over the Northern Isles.

For much of the remainder of the Outlook Period pressure is predicted to be low to the west or northwest of Scotland and high across Scandinavia. If so then this would result in a mainly moderate SE’ly airflow across northeast Scotland.

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FORECAST FOR NEXT THREE DAYS
Confidence level: Confidence level: Weather type – medium/high. Timing – medium.
Daytime temperatures rising to 14° to 16° Celsius, perhaps 17° Celsius today. Overnight lows falling to around 10° Celsius.

WEDNESDAY 30th: A cloudy start today with outbreaks of showery rain, heaviest over Shetland. Becoming brighter with some sunny spells and a few showers by the afternoon. F5-6 SW’ly winds easing F5 as they veer W’ly. A bright evening with a few showers this evening, mainly affecting Orkney at first and later Fair Isle. Winds easing F4 and veering NW’ly.
Sea State: Slight to moderate in the east, with a 1 to 2 metre W’ly wind-swell. Moderate to rough in the west, with a 2 to 3 metre W’ly wind-swell

THURSDAY 31st: Bright with sunny intervals and scattered showers, but these dying away to leave a dry afternoon. F4 NW’ly winds.
Sea State: Slight to moderate, with a 1 to 2 metre W to NW’ly wind-swell later turning SW’ly.

FRIDAY 1st: Drier and brighter with a few showers, mainly across Orkney. Light F2-3 winds tending E’ly later.
Sea State: Slight to moderate, with a 1 to 2 metre SE’ly wind-swell turning E’ly later. Highest in the west.

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TEN DAY OUTLOOK
Confidence level: Weather type – medium/low. Timing – low.
Daytime temperatures rising to 15° or 16° Celsius with overnight lows falling to around 10° Celsius.

SATURDAY 2nd: Sunny spells and a few showers at first then clouding over with outbreaks of rain accompanied by misty conditions and hill fog. Mostly moderate E’ly winds backing NE’ly.
Sea State: Slight to moderate, with a 1 to 2 metre NE’ly wind-swell.

SUNDAY 3rd: Early rain then drier but with some mist and low cloud. Light or moderate N to NW’ly winds.
Sea State: Perhaps slight to moderate, with a 1 to 2 metre W or NW’ly wind-swell.

MONDAY 4th – SATURDAY 9th: Monday and Tuesday perhaps drier and brighter with mostly moderate NW’ly winds becoming light and variable. The remainder of the Outlook Period possibly mostly dry but with the risk of haar at times. Mainly light SE to E’ly winds.
Sea State on Monday: Possibly slight, with a 1 metre or less W’ly wind-swell.

10-Day Weather Outlook
for Shetland, Orkney and Caithness

Page updated
Wednesday 30 July, 2014 9:36

WEATHER HEADLINES

Today

Showers then drier and brighter. Breezy.

  Tonight

A few showers. Winds easing.

  Tomorrow

Bright. Showers becoming isolated. Moderate winds.

  Days 3 5

Mainly dry at first. Some rain and mist later. Mostly light winds.

Days 6-10

Some showers. Mainly light or moderate winds. Risk of haar later.

 

FAIR ISLE WEATHER DATA
via WeatherCast

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Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9)
16th December 2006, 0904z
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9) Looking NNE
.
Showery SW to W'ly airflow
Temp 6.1°C, dew point 1.6°C, wind 240° 17kt

Cumulus mediocris developing over Fair Isle
24th May 2006, 1300z
Cumulus mediocris developing over Fair Isle
and forming a 'clouc street' downwind
of the Isle (CL2)
Temp 9.0°C, dew point 4.5°C, wind F2 S'ly.
Stratocumulus formed from the spreading out of cumulus
24th May 2006, 2001z
Stratocumulus formed from the
spreading out of cumulus (CL4)

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
Approaching shower. Cumulonimbus with anvil
24th May 2006, 2016z
Approaching shower.
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9)

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
Showers over Shetland and passing through the Fair Isle Channel
24th May 2006, 2034z
Showers over Shetland and passing through
the Fair Isle Channel. Cumulonimbus with anvil

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly

 

Fair Isle, South LighthouseFair Isle, South Lighthouse


Full moon rising
1700 UTC 25th October

Full moon rising


SYNOPSIS DAYS 1-3 DAYS 4-10
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Shetland Weather Review
2004-2010
 

 

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DISCLAIMER
This outlook is based on an appraisal of the charts and ensembles from GFS, ECMWF, UKMO and FAX available via the internet, and over 30 years of local weather experience.

Be aware that the weather over north-west Europe - and especially around the Northern Isles - is part of an ever-changing and dynamic system. Therefore regard the 10-Day Outlook' as a guide only - there are times when any outlook going beyond about 36 to 48 hours is likely to prove unreliable.

Always check the latest forecast from the UK Met Office before undertaking any weather-dependant activity.

All forecasts are for planning purposes only.

Neither Dave Wheeler, nor any employee of Fair Isle Weather Services, accepts any liability for the accuracy of this forecast.


Please note that this page is usually updated every day (around mid-morning) but on occasions updates may be irregular. A daily service by e-mail is available, but is charged for.

If you wish you can have the 10-day Outlook e-mailed to you free once a week (usually at the weekend). Please contact Fair Isle Weather Services for further information
.


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aurura glow

Aurora glow, looking north towards Ward Hill
(l ights of Setter croft foreground)
Photograph taken about 2100UTC 18th October 2007
Pentax K10D with Pentax DA 16-45mm F4 w/a lens set at 16mm
Exposure 193 seconds at F5.6 ISO100

AuroraWatch www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/aurorawatch/

 

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