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/05/2013

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Fair Isle, looking north from the office window


Fair Isle MetCam2 (Axis 207W)
Fair Isle, looking approx. ESE towards 400' high Sheep Rock
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10-Day Weather Outlook
for Shetland, Orkney and Caithness
Wednesday 22 May, 2013 11:30

 

 

SUMMARY

Cool and bright today with scattered showers and sunny spells. The showers becoming more frequent and heavier, possibly with hail, for a time this morning as a fresh W to NW’ly wind increases fresh to strong NW’ly and strong by the afternoon. A cold evening and night with frequent and blustery showers. Strong NW’ly winds increasing strong to gale across exposed coasts and hills.

Cloudy on Thursday with showers and strong to gale-force N to NW’ly winds. The showers becoming less frequent through the afternoon with the winds easing overnight.

Friday drier and brighter with lighter NW’ly winds. Saturday mainly dry and bright with sunny or clear spells and little wind. Sunday cloudier with a little patchy rain or drizzle. Milder with light W or NW’ly winds.

An occasional shower possible, but perhaps staying mainly dry and bright for much of next week. Moderate SE’ly winds developing on Monday, backing E’ly by Tuesday then light NE to N’ly for the rest of the week. Feeling milder by day but nights still cool with the risk of a local frost away from coasts.

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GENERAL SITUATION & SYNOPSIS
06:00 UTC 22/05/2013

With pressure high to the west and a depression over the Norwegian Sea a cool and strengthening NW’ly airflow covers northern Scotland. This will carry a showery trough across the Northern Isles this morning.

A NW to N’ly airflow will strengthen further tonight as an Atlantic anticyclone builds north over Iceland while low pressure over the Norwegian Sea transfers into southern Scandinavia.

As the high and its northerly ridge edge closer to the British Isles and the low over southern Scandinavia moves closer to Shetland, a strong N’ly airflow will be maintained through Thursday. This will ease overnight as filling low pressure moves south over the North Sea and the ridge moves in over Scotland for Friday. The ridge is forecast to slip south over the weekend with a milder, light W or NW’ly airflow developing.

Present predictions indicate that after the weekend low pressure may move southeast over southern parts of the UK while pressure remains relatively high across the north. Should this happen then we may see a moderate SE’ly airflow, developing early in the week, gradually backing to a cooler NE’ly later.

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10-Day Weather Outlook
for Shetland, Orkney and Caithness

Page updated
Wednesday 22 May, 2013 11:30

WEATHER HEADLINES

Today

Bright with showers. Becoming windy.

  Tonight

Cold and windy with frequent showers.

  Tomorrow

Scattered showers. Cool and windy.

  Days 3 5

Showers dying out as winds ease. Milder for a time.

Days 6-10

Staying cool. Mainly dry with moderate winds.

SYNOPSIS DAYS 1-3 DAYS 4-10
Disclaimer CHARTS


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Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9)
16th December 2006, 0904z
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9) Looking NNE
.
Showery SW to W'ly airflow
Temp 6.1°C, dew point 1.6°C, wind 240° 17kt

Cumulus mediocris developing over Fair Isle
24th May 2006, 1300z
Cumulus mediocris developing over Fair Isle
and forming a 'clouc street' downwind
of the Isle (CL2)
Temp 9.0°C, dew point 4.5°C, wind F2 S'ly.
Stratocumulus formed from the spreading out of cumulus
24th May 2006, 2001z
Stratocumulus formed from the
spreading out of cumulus (CL4)

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
Approaching shower. Cumulonimbus with anvil
24th May 2006, 2016z
Approaching shower.
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9)

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
Showers over Shetland and passing through the Fair Isle Channel
24th May 2006, 2034z
Showers over Shetland and passing through
the Fair Isle Channel. Cumulonimbus with anvil

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly

 

Fair Isle, South LighthouseFair Isle, South Lighthouse


Full moon rising
1700 UTC 25th October

Full moon rising
 

FORECAST FOR NEXT THREE DAYS
Confidence level: Confidence level: Weather type –medium. Timing – medium.
A high around 9° Celsius today with a low tonight of about 3° Celsius. Cooler on Thursday and Friday, around 7° Celsius by day down to about 2° Celsius overnight.

WEDNESDAY 22nd: Cool and bright today with scattered showers and sunny spells. The showers becoming more frequent and heavier, possibly with hail, for a time this morning as a F5 W to NW’ly wind increases F5-6 NW’ly and F6-7 by the afternoon. A cold evening and night with frequent and blustery showers, perhaps wintry across the hills and possibly to lower levels in any heavy ones. F6-7 NW’ly winds increasing F7 to gale F8 across exposed coasts and hills.
Sea State: Moderate becoming rough, with a 2 metre W or NW’ly wind-swell turning NW to N’ly and increasing 3 to 4 metres.

THURSDAY 23rd: Cloudy with showers and F6 to gale F8 N to NW’ly winds. The showers becoming less frequent through the afternoon with the winds easing overnight.
Sea State: Mostly rough, with a 3 to 4 metre N’ly wind-swell.

FRIDAY 24th: A more pleasant, drier and brighter day. F2-3 N or NNE’ly winds backing NW’ly.
Sea State: Moderate to rough becoming moderate, with a 2 to 3 metre N or NW’ly wind-swell decreasing 2 metres and turning SW’ly later.

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TEN DAY OUTLOOK
Confidence level: Weather type – medium/low. Timing – low/medium.
Cool with temperatures 9° to 11° Celsius by day down to about 4° Celsius overnight.

SATURDAY 25th: Mainly dry and bright with sunny or clear spells and little wind.
Sea State: Mainly slight, with a 1 metre SW to W’ly wind-swell.

SUNDAY 26th: Cloudier with a little patchy rain or drizzle. Milder with light W or NW’ly winds.
Sea State: Perhaps mainly slight, with a 1 metre NW’ly wind-swell turning NE’ly later.

MONDAY 27th – SATURDAY 1st: An occasional shower possible, but perhaps staying mainly dry and bright for much of next week. Light to moderate E to SE’ly winds developing on Monday, backing E’ly by Tuesday then light NE to N’ly for the rest of the week. Feeling milder by day but nights still cool with the risk of a local frost away from coasts.
Sea State on Monday: Possibly mainly slight, with a 1 metre E’ly wind-swell.

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DISCLAIMER
This outlook is based on an appraisal of the charts and ensembles from GFS, ECMWF, UKMO and FAX available via the internet, and over 30 years of local weather experience.

Be aware that the weather over north-west Europe - and especially around the Northern Isles - is part of an ever-changing and dynamic system. Therefore regard the 10-Day Outlook' as a guide only - there are times when any outlook going beyond about 36 to 48 hours is likely to prove unreliable.

Always check the latest forecast from the UK Met Office before undertaking any weather-dependant activity.

All forecasts are for planning purposes only.

Neither Dave Wheeler, nor any employee of Fair Isle Weather Services, accepts any liability for the accuracy of this forecast.


Please note that this page is usually updated every day (around mid-morning) but on occasions updates may be irregular. A daily service by e-mail is available, but is charged for.

If you wish you can have the 10-day Outlook e-mailed to you free once a week (usually at the weekend). Please contact Fair Isle Weather Services for further information
.


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aurura glow

Aurora glow, looking north towards Ward Hill
(l ights of Setter croft foreground)
Photograph taken about 2100UTC 18th October 2007
Pentax K10D with Pentax DA 16-45mm F4 w/a lens set at 16mm
Exposure 193 seconds at F5.6 ISO100

AuroraWatch www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/aurorawatch/

 

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Shetland Landscapes
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