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SUMMARY

A cloudy day with outbreaks of rain, heaviest and most persistent in Shetland where it will also turn misty. A milder day with moderate to fresh SW’ly winds increasing fresh to strong. Becoming drier and clearer for a time later this evening before heavy blustery showers develop overnight.

Squally heavy showers with hail and the risk of thunder on Thursday becoming less frequent through the afternoon. Fresh to strong SW’ly winds veering NW’ly and increasing strong to gale-force. Turning cooler.

Friday mostly dry and bright but rain by evening as moderate NW’ly winds back fresh SW’ly.

Rain and cloud at first on Saturday clearing later as fresh SW’ly winds become lighter E’ly. Sunday perhaps drier and brighter with light to moderate E’ly winds.

Possibly staying mainly dry and bright through next week with mostly light winds, these mainly E’ly in direction.

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GENERAL SITUATION & SYNOPSIS
06:00 UTC 16/04/2014

Atlantic fronts will move east today, with a small depression tracking east to the north of Shetland during Thursday, temporarily veering the SW’ly airflow NW’ly.

The SW’ly airflow is expected to ease over the weekend, as a weakening front remains slow-moving across the north of Scotland and Northern Isles.

With pressure building to the north and a shallow depression drifting east over the UK, an E’ly airflow is expected by Monday. Present predictions suggest this synoptic situation – high pressure to the north with lower pressure to the south, may persist through next week maintaining a generally light  E’ly airflow over the Northern Isles.

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FORECAST FOR NEXT THREE DAYS
Confidence level: Confidence level: Weather type – medium/high. Timing – medium.
Temperatures rising to 9° or 10° Celsius today, possibly 11° Celsius in Orkney, down to around 6° Celsius tonight. A degree or two cooler on Thursday and Friday with temperatures in the daily range 9° to 5° Celsius.

WEDNESDAY 16th: A cloudy day with outbreaks of rain, these becoming persistent and heavier at times across Shetland by the afternoon but with drier spells possible at times across Orkney. In Shetland it will also turn misty with hill fog developing. A milder day with F4-5 SW’ly winds increasing F5-6. Cloudy with persistent rain this evening then becoming drier and clearer for a time before it again clouds over with heavy blustery showers developing overnight.
Sea State: Moderate to rough, with a 2 to 3 metre S to SW’ly wind-swell turning W’ly. Highest in the west.

THURSDAY 17th: Squally heavy showers at first with hail and the risk of thunder. The showers becoming less frequent through the afternoon with sunny spells developing. F5-6 SW’ly winds veering NW’ly and increasing F6 to gale F8. Turning cooler. Winds easing overnight.
Sea State: Moderate to rough, with a 2 to 4 metre SW to W’ly wind-swell turning NW’ly for a time. Highest in the west.

FRIDAY 18th: Mostly dry and bright with sunny spells at first, but then clouding over with rain possible by evening as F4 NW’ly winds back F5 SW’ly.
Sea State: Moderate to rough, with a 2 to 3 metre wind-swell. NW’ly at first, SW’ly later.

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TEN DAY OUTLOOK
Confidence level: Weather type – medium/low. Timing – low.
Temperatures in the daily range 9° to 11° Celsius down to around 6° Celsius.

SATURDAY 19th: Rain and cloud at first clearing to drier brighter conditions later as fresh SW’ly winds become light N’ly.
Sea State: Moderate to rough, with a 2 to 3 metre S or SW’ly wind-swell turning SE to E’ly later.

SUNDAY 20th: Drier and brighter with light to moderate E’ly winds.
Sea State: Perhaps moderate to slight in the east, with a 1 to 2 metre E’ly wind-swell. Moderate to rough in the west, with a 2 to 3 metre SE’ly wind-swell.

MONDAY 21st – SATURDAY 26th: Perhaps some early rain on Monday, then drier and brighter. Fresh SE to E’ly winds easing. Possibly mainly dry and bright through the week with mostly light winds, these mainly E’ly in direction.
Sea State Monday: Possibly moderate to rough, with a mainly 2 metre SE to E’ly wind-swell.

10-Day Weather Outlook
for Shetland, Orkney and Caithness

Page updated
Wednesday 16 April, 2014 11:58

WEATHER HEADLINES

Today

Outbreaks of rain. Breezy.

  Tonight

Blustery showers. Windy.

  Tomorrow

Blustery showers, chance of thunder at first. Windy with risk of gales.

  Days 3 5

Mainly dry and bright, but rain on Saturday.

Days 6-10

Perhaps mostly dry and bright.

 

FAIR ISLE WEATHER DATA
via WeatherCast

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Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9)
16th December 2006, 0904z
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9) Looking NNE
.
Showery SW to W'ly airflow
Temp 6.1°C, dew point 1.6°C, wind 240° 17kt

Cumulus mediocris developing over Fair Isle
24th May 2006, 1300z
Cumulus mediocris developing over Fair Isle
and forming a 'clouc street' downwind
of the Isle (CL2)
Temp 9.0°C, dew point 4.5°C, wind F2 S'ly.
Stratocumulus formed from the spreading out of cumulus
24th May 2006, 2001z
Stratocumulus formed from the
spreading out of cumulus (CL4)

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
Approaching shower. Cumulonimbus with anvil
24th May 2006, 2016z
Approaching shower.
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9)

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
Showers over Shetland and passing through the Fair Isle Channel
24th May 2006, 2034z
Showers over Shetland and passing through
the Fair Isle Channel. Cumulonimbus with anvil

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly

 

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Full moon rising
1700 UTC 25th October

Full moon rising


SYNOPSIS DAYS 1-3 DAYS 4-10
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Shetland Weather Review
2004-2010
 

 

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DISCLAIMER
This outlook is based on an appraisal of the charts and ensembles from GFS, ECMWF, UKMO and FAX available via the internet, and over 30 years of local weather experience.

Be aware that the weather over north-west Europe - and especially around the Northern Isles - is part of an ever-changing and dynamic system. Therefore regard the 10-Day Outlook' as a guide only - there are times when any outlook going beyond about 36 to 48 hours is likely to prove unreliable.

Always check the latest forecast from the UK Met Office before undertaking any weather-dependant activity.

All forecasts are for planning purposes only.

Neither Dave Wheeler, nor any employee of Fair Isle Weather Services, accepts any liability for the accuracy of this forecast.


Please note that this page is usually updated every day (around mid-morning) but on occasions updates may be irregular. A daily service by e-mail is available, but is charged for.

If you wish you can have the 10-day Outlook e-mailed to you free once a week (usually at the weekend). Please contact Fair Isle Weather Services for further information
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aurura glow

Aurora glow, looking north towards Ward Hill
(l ights of Setter croft foreground)
Photograph taken about 2100UTC 18th October 2007
Pentax K10D with Pentax DA 16-45mm F4 w/a lens set at 16mm
Exposure 193 seconds at F5.6 ISO100

AuroraWatch www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/aurorawatch/

 

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