As I will be away from Fair Isle.
Saturday 4th October
until Monday 3rd November
updates to this page will be infrequent during this period.

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SUMMARY
Bright today with scattered showers. Mainly moderate to fresh S to SW’ly winds, A few showers this evening and tonight with some reasonable clear spells, especially across Orkney. Strong SW’ly winds.

Bright on Friday with occasionally heavy, blustery showers. SW’ly winds remaining strong and gusty. Showers more frequent overnight.

Saturday bright and breezy with blustery showers and strong to gale force SW’ly winds, with severe gales developing through the evening and overnight. The showers perhaps merging into a longer spell of rain. Frequent showers on Sunday morning accompanied by gale or severe gale-force SW’ly winds, then becoming drier and brighter for the afternoon as winds ease a little.

Monday dull with rain at times but S to SW’ly winds should be less strong. The next few days perhaps becoming drier and brighter as fresh SW’ly winds tend NW’ly in direction. The week possibly ending unsettled with rain and strengthening SE’ly winds. Showers and strong SW’ly winds following for the weekend.

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GENERAL SITUATION & SYNOPSIS
06:00 UTC 23/10/2014

Pressure is low to the northwest and high to the southeast of the British Isles, the resulting steep pressure gradient maintaining a strong SW’ly airflow across the north of the UK. Fronts, associated with an Icelandic depression, will sink slowly south over the Scottish mainland today before clearing eastwards overnight.

This situation will then remain more or less unchanged through Friday and into Saturday, with the strong SW’ly airflow carrying an occasional week front east across the Northern Isles. A new and deep Icelandic depression is expected to drive active fronts eastwards during the weekend. These will be accompanied by a strengthening SW to S’ly airflow.

This will ease early the following week as low pressure in the Iceland region is forecast to be replaced by relatively high pressure bringing less unsettled conditions to the Northern Isles as a strong SW’ly airflow weakens and becomes W or NW’ly in direction. This may weaken later with Atlantic low pressure introducing a SE’ly airflow across the area for the following weekend, this then veering SW’ly as fronts clear the Northern Isles.

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FORECAST FOR NEXT THREE DAYS
Daytime temperatures rising to 12° or 13° Celsius with overnight lows falling to around 8° Celsius.

THURSDAY 23rd:
Bright with sunny spells and scattered showers. F4-5 S to SW’ly winds, but perhaps F5-6 at first across the north of Shetland. A few showers, the odd one possibly heavy, this evening and tonight but also some reasonable clear spells, especially across Orkney. SW’ly winds will increase F6-7.
Sea State: Moderate to rough, with a 2 to 4 metre SW’ly wind-swell. Highest in the west.

FRIDAY 24th: Bright with a mixture of sunny spells and occasional heavy, blustery showers. Gusty F5-7 SW’ly winds. A cloudier night with the showers more frequent for a time.
Sea State: Rough to very rough, with a 3 to 5 metre SW’ly wind-swell. Highest in the west.

SATURDAY 25th: Cloudy at times with blustery showers and F6 to gale F8 SW’ly winds, these backing S’ly and increasing severe gale F9 through the evening and overnight’ The showers will also become more frequent and perhaps merge into a longer spell of rain.
Sea State: Rough to very rough, with a 3 to 5 metre SW’ly wind-swell. Highest in the west.

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TEN DAY OUTLOOK
Daytime temperatures rising to around 12° or 13° Celsius. Overnight lows falling to around 8° Celsius.

SUNDAY 26th:
Frequent showers during the morning, accompanied by gale or severe gale-force SW’ly winds. Becoming drier and brighter for the afternoon as winds ease strong to gale force.
Sea State: Rough to high, with a 4 to 7 metre S to SW'ly wind-swell. Highest in the west.

MONDAY 27th: Dull with rain at times but S to SW’ly winds are expected to be much less strong.
Sea State: Possibly moderate to rough in the east, with a 2 to 3 metre SW’ly wind-swell. In the west rough, with a 3 to 4 metre SW to W’ly wind-swell.

TUESDAY 28th – SUNDAY 2nd Tuesday and Wednesday perhaps bright with showers and fresh SW’ly winds. Much of the remainder of the week perhaps drier with easing winds tending more W’ly or NW’ly in direction. Possibly turning changeable and more unsettled for the weekend with rain and strengthening SE’ly.
Sea State Tuesday: Possibly moderate to rough, with a 2 to 3 metre W’ly wind-swell. Highest in the west.


10-Day Weather Outlook
for Shetland, Orkney and Caithness

Page updated
Thursday 23 October, 2014 12:04

WEATHER HEADLINES

Today

Bright with showers. Quite windy.

  Tonight

Showers and clear spells. Windy.

  Tomorrow

Bright with showers and strong winds.

  Days 3 5

Mainly bright and breezy with blustery showers, but rain and gales later.

Days 6-10

Perhaps drier and less windy for a time. Unsettled later.

 

FAIR ISLE WEATHER DATA
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Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9)
16th December 2006, 0904z
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9) Looking NNE
.
Showery SW to W'ly airflow
Temp 6.1°C, dew point 1.6°C, wind 240° 17kt

Cumulus mediocris developing over Fair Isle
24th May 2006, 1300z
Cumulus mediocris developing over Fair Isle
and forming a 'clouc street' downwind
of the Isle (CL2)
Temp 9.0°C, dew point 4.5°C, wind F2 S'ly.
Stratocumulus formed from the spreading out of cumulus
24th May 2006, 2001z
Stratocumulus formed from the
spreading out of cumulus (CL4)

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
Approaching shower. Cumulonimbus with anvil
24th May 2006, 2016z
Approaching shower.
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9)

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
Showers over Shetland and passing through the Fair Isle Channel
24th May 2006, 2034z
Showers over Shetland and passing through
the Fair Isle Channel. Cumulonimbus with anvil

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly

 

Fair Isle, South LighthouseFair Isle, South Lighthouse


Full moon rising
1700 UTC 25th October

Full moon rising


SYNOPSIS DAYS 1-3 DAYS 4-10
Disclaimer CHARTS


Shetland Weather Review
2004-2010
 

 

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DISCLAIMER
This outlook is based on an appraisal of the charts and ensembles from GFS, ECMWF, UKMO and FAX available via the internet, and over 30 years of local weather experience.

Be aware that the weather over north-west Europe - and especially around the Northern Isles - is part of an ever-changing and dynamic system. Therefore regard the 10-Day Outlook' as a guide only - there are times when any outlook going beyond about 36 to 48 hours is likely to prove unreliable.

Always check the latest forecast from the UK Met Office before undertaking any weather-dependant activity.

All forecasts are for planning purposes only.

Neither Dave Wheeler, nor any employee of Fair Isle Weather Services, accepts any liability for the accuracy of this forecast.


Please note that this page is usually updated every day (around mid-morning) but on occasions updates may be irregular. A daily service by e-mail is available, but is charged for.

If you wish you can have the 10-day Outlook e-mailed to you free once a week (usually at the weekend). Please contact Fair Isle Weather Services for further information
.


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aurura glow

Aurora glow, looking north towards Ward Hill
(l ights of Setter croft foreground)
Photograph taken about 2100UTC 18th October 2007
Pentax K10D with Pentax DA 16-45mm F4 w/a lens set at 16mm
Exposure 193 seconds at F5.6 ISO100

AuroraWatch www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/aurorawatch/

 

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