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SUMMARY
Bright at times today with some occasionally heavy showers. Fresh to strong N to NW’ly winds easing. Shetland mainly dry and clear tonight with light NW’ly winds. Orkney cloudier with rain edging northwards later. Winds here becoming light and variable.

Any rain across Orkney on Thursday soon clearing. Then a bright day with a few showers, perhaps more frequent over Shetland later. Light to moderate N’ly winds.

Bright with scattered showers and fresh N’ly winds on Friday. Mostly dry and bright on Saturday with moderate to fresh N to NW’ly winds. Sunday dry and bright with sunny spells and light winds.

The first part of next week mainly dry and bright with light winds. Then becoming more changeable with some rain and freshening SE’ly winds. Possibly drier and brighter later with some showers as lighter winds turn S or SW’ly.

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GENERAL SITUATION & SYNOPSIS
06:00 UTC 20/08/2014
With low pressure over southern Scandinavia a strong and showery NW to N’ly airflow continues across the Northern Isles. This is expected to ease overnight as a shallow low moves east across the mainland of northern Scotland tonight. As it does so a front will be pushed north towards Orkney before being pulled away as the low continues east.

As pressure builds to the north a fresh N’ly airflow will return later on Thursday and persist through Friday.

A forecast ridge is expected to bring a settled weekend and first part of the following week. Low pressure predicted to develop to the west of the British Isles is likely to bring a changeable SE to S’ly airflow later.

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FORECAST FOR NEXT THREE DAYS
Confidence level: Confidence level: Weather type – medium/high. Timing – medium.
Daytime temperatures rising to between 12° and 14° Celsius. Overnight lows falling to around 8° Celsius.

WEDNESDAY 20th: Rather cloudy with some occasionally heavy showers but also sunny spells between. F5, locally F6, N to NW’ly winds easing through the day. A few showers this evening then Shetland mainly dry and clear overnight with F2-3 NW’ly winds. Across Orkney cloud will increase with rain edging northwards later. Winds here becoming variable F2-3.
Sea State: Mostly moderate, with a 2 metre NW or N’ly wind-swell.

THURSDAY 21st: Any rain across Orkney soon clearing away southwards. Then a bright day with some sunny spells and a few showers. These perhaps more frequent over Shetland later. F3-4 N’ly winds.
Sea State: Moderate to slight, with a 1 to 2 metre NW to N’ly wind-swell tending N to NE’ly later.

FRIDAY 22nd: Bright with sunny spells, scattered showers and fresh N’ly winds.
Sea State: Slight or moderate, with a 1 to 2 metre N’ly wind-swell.

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TEN DAY OUTLOOK
Confidence level: Weather type – medium/low. Timing – low.
Daytime temperatures rising to 13° or 14° Celsius with overnight lows down to around 9° Celsius.

SATURDAY 23rd: Mostly dry and bright with moderate to fresh N to NW’ly winds.
Sea State: Slight to moderate, with a 1 to 2 metre N to NW’ly wind-swell.

SUNDAY 24th: Dry and bright with sunny spells and light NW’ly winds backing W’ly.
Sea State: Perhaps slight to moderate, with a 1 to 2 metre NW’ly wind-swell.

MONDAY 25th – SATURDAY 30th: The first part of the week mainly dry and bright with light winds. Then becoming more changeable with some rain and freshening SE’ly winds. Possibly drier and brighter later with some showers as lighter winds turn S or SW’ly.
Sea State on Monday: Possibly mostly slight, with a 1 metre or less SE’ly wind-swell.

10-Day Weather Outlook
for Shetland, Orkney and Caithness

Page updated
Wednesday 20 August, 2014 14:49

WEATHER HEADLINES

Today

Windy with sunny spells and scattered showers.

  Tonight

Shetland dry with clear spells. Chance of some rain in Orkney later. Lighter winds.

  Tomorrow

Sunny spells and scattered showers. Light winds.

  Days 3 5

Showers becoming less frequent as winds ease.

Days 6-10

Dry start to next week then more changeable

 

FAIR ISLE WEATHER DATA
via WeatherCast

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Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9)
16th December 2006, 0904z
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9) Looking NNE
.
Showery SW to W'ly airflow
Temp 6.1°C, dew point 1.6°C, wind 240° 17kt

Cumulus mediocris developing over Fair Isle
24th May 2006, 1300z
Cumulus mediocris developing over Fair Isle
and forming a 'clouc street' downwind
of the Isle (CL2)
Temp 9.0°C, dew point 4.5°C, wind F2 S'ly.
Stratocumulus formed from the spreading out of cumulus
24th May 2006, 2001z
Stratocumulus formed from the
spreading out of cumulus (CL4)

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
Approaching shower. Cumulonimbus with anvil
24th May 2006, 2016z
Approaching shower.
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9)

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
Showers over Shetland and passing through the Fair Isle Channel
24th May 2006, 2034z
Showers over Shetland and passing through
the Fair Isle Channel. Cumulonimbus with anvil

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly

 

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Full moon rising
1700 UTC 25th October

Full moon rising


SYNOPSIS DAYS 1-3 DAYS 4-10
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Shetland Weather Review
2004-2010
 

 

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DISCLAIMER
This outlook is based on an appraisal of the charts and ensembles from GFS, ECMWF, UKMO and FAX available via the internet, and over 30 years of local weather experience.

Be aware that the weather over north-west Europe - and especially around the Northern Isles - is part of an ever-changing and dynamic system. Therefore regard the 10-Day Outlook' as a guide only - there are times when any outlook going beyond about 36 to 48 hours is likely to prove unreliable.

Always check the latest forecast from the UK Met Office before undertaking any weather-dependant activity.

All forecasts are for planning purposes only.

Neither Dave Wheeler, nor any employee of Fair Isle Weather Services, accepts any liability for the accuracy of this forecast.


Please note that this page is usually updated every day (around mid-morning) but on occasions updates may be irregular. A daily service by e-mail is available, but is charged for.

If you wish you can have the 10-day Outlook e-mailed to you free once a week (usually at the weekend). Please contact Fair Isle Weather Services for further information
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aurura glow

Aurora glow, looking north towards Ward Hill
(l ights of Setter croft foreground)
Photograph taken about 2100UTC 18th October 2007
Pentax K10D with Pentax DA 16-45mm F4 w/a lens set at 16mm
Exposure 193 seconds at F5.6 ISO100

AuroraWatch www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/aurorawatch/

 

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