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10-Day Weather Outlook
for Shetland, Orkney and Caithness
Thursday 2 September, 2010 10:44 BST

 

 

SUMMARY
Dry and bright today. Becoming cloudy and misty tonight. Light winds.

Friday also dry, but with rather more cloud around. With a light SE’ly breeze, eastern coasts and hills could be misty at times.

The weekend is expected to stay dry though cloudy, with patchy mist and hill fog in places. SE’ly winds will also freshen.

While a little rain may just about reach Orkney by Tuesday, for Shetland much of next week looks likely to be mainly dry. The strong SE’ly wind possibly easing and backing E or NE’ly later.

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GENERAL SITUATION AND SYNOPSIS
06:00 UTC 02
/09/2010
A large area of high pressure lies across the British Isles, North Sea and southern Norwegian Sea. With the main centre to the north, a light SE to E’ly airflow covers Shetland. Little change is expected during the next 24 hours.

During the weekend - as the high drifts into southern Scandinavia - a SE’ly airflow will freshen, as low pressure in the Atlantic edges closer.

By early next week, the SE’ly airflow will be strengthening further, as fronts – pushed east by the depression – become stalled over western Scotland, as high pressure holds on to the east.

With the latest prognosis suggesting the Scandinavian high will act as a block to the Atlantic depression, a strong mainly dry SE’ly airflow looks set to continue until the middle of next week. Thereafter, with the high predicted to transfer into the Norwegian Sea, we may see an easing SE’ly airflow backing E or NE’ly in direction.

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10-Day Weather Outlook
for Shetland, Orkney and Caithness

Page updated
Thursday 2 September, 2010 10:44 BST
WEATHER HEADLINES
Today

DRY AND BRIGHT

  Tonight

MISTY

  Tomorrow

DRY BUT CLOUDY

  Days 2-5

MOSTLY DRY, FRESHENING SE WIND

Days 6-10

MOSTLY DRY, STRONG SE WIND

SYNOPSIS DAYS 1-3 DAYS 4-10
Disclaimer CHARTS


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Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9)
16th December 2006, 0904z
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9) Looking NNE
.
Showery SW to W'ly airflow
Temp 6.1°C, dew point 1.6°C, wind 240° 17kt

Cumulus mediocris developing over Fair Isle
24th May 2006, 1300z
Cumulus mediocris developing over Fair Isle
and forming a 'clouc street' downwind
of the Isle (CL2)
Temp 9.0°C, dew point 4.5°C, wind F2 S'ly.
Stratocumulus formed from the spreading out of cumulus
24th May 2006, 2001z
Stratocumulus formed from the
spreading out of cumulus (CL4)

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
Approaching shower. Cumulonimbus with anvil
24th May 2006, 2016z
Approaching shower.
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9)

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
Showers over Shetland and passing through the Fair Isle Channel
24th May 2006, 2034z
Showers over Shetland and passing through
the Fair Isle Channel. Cumulonimbus with anvil

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
 

FORECAST FOR NEXT THREE DAYS
Confidence level: Weather type – high/medium. Timing – medium/high.
Temperatures today ranging from a high of 14° to 16° Celsius, and perhaps 17° Celsius in the sunnier parts of Orkney. A low of about 9° Celsius tonight. On Friday and Saturday, temperatures in the daily range 14° or 15° Celsius down to about 9° Celsius.

THURSDAY 2nd: Another dry day, brighter than of late with sunny periods, the best of these across Orkney. Shetland will see some cloud at times. F1-2 SE to E’ly winds. Most places will be dry with some clear spells at first this evening, but cloud will increase, with mist and hill fog becoming more extensive overnight. Across Shetland, the cloud could well become thick enough to give some drizzle later.
Sea state – Mainly slight, with a less than 1 metre E’ly wind-swell. Around Fair Isle and Orkney later becoming slight to moderate, with a 1 to 2 metre SE’ly wind-swell.

FRIDAY 3rd: Dry, but it will be rather cloudy with a few bright or sunny interludes. F2-3 SE’ly winds are likely to carry some low cloud on to the east side of Shetland from time to time.
Sea state – In most Shetland waters remaining slight, with a 1 metre E’ly wind-swell. To the west and around Fair Isle and Orkney, slight to moderate, with a 1 to 2 metre SE’ly wind-swell.

SATURDAY 4th: Mostly dry and bright but, as SE’ly winds freshen F3-4, eastern coasts and hills could see some mist and low cloud.
Sea state – In eastern Shetland waters becoming slight to moderate, with a 1 to 2 metre SE’ly wind swell. To the west becoming moderate to rough, with a 2 to 3 metre SE’ly wind-swell. Around Fair Isle and Orkney becoming rough, with a 3 metre SE’ly wind-swell by evening.

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TEN DAY OUTLOOK
Confidence level: Weather type – medium. Timing – medium/low.
Temperatures in the daily range 14° or 15° Celsius down to about 9° Celsius.

SUNDAY 5th: Rather cloudy, with the best of any brighter periods – and perhaps a few sunny or clear spells - in the west, sheltered from a SE’ly breeze freshening F4-5 by evening.
Sea state – Mostly rough, with a 3 to 4 metre SE’ly wind-swell. Moderate to the northeast of Shetland, with a 2 metre SE’ly wind-swell.

MONDAY 6th: Mainly dry though cloudy, with some mist and fog affecting eastern hills and coasts. The SE’ly wind increasing fresh to strong. Some patchy rain perhaps reaching the west of Orkney by the end of the day.

TUESDAY 7th – SUNDAY 12th: While a little rain may just reach Orkney for a time on Tuesday, the remainder of next week looks likely to be mainly dry. A strong SE’ly wind possibly easing and backing E or NE’ly later.

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DISCLAIMER
This outlook is based on an appraisal of the charts and ensembles from GFS, ECMWF, UKMO and FAX available via the internet, and over 30 years of local weather experience.

Be aware that the weather over north-west Europe - and especially around the Northern Isles - is part of an ever-changing and dynamic system. Therefore regard the 10-Day Outlook' as a guide only - there are times when any outlook going beyond about 36 to 48 hours is likely to prove unreliable.

Always check the latest forecast from the UK Met Office before undertaking any weather-dependant activity.

All forecasts are for planning purposes only.

Neither Dave Wheeler, nor any employee of Fair Isle Weather Services, accepts any liability for the accuracy of this forecast.


Please note that this page is usually updated every day (around mid-morning) but on occasions updates may be irregular. A daily service by e-mail is available, but is charged for.

If you wish you can have the 10-day Outlook e-mailed to you free once a week (usually at the weekend). Please contact Fair Isle Weather Services for further information
.


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aurura glow

Aurora glow, looking north towards Ward Hill
(l ights of Setter croft foreground)
Photograph taken about 2100UTC 18th October 2007
Pentax K10D with Pentax DA 16-45mm F4 w/a lens set at 16mm
Exposure 193 seconds at F5.6 ISO100

AuroraWatch www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/aurorawatch/

Fair Isle, South LighthouseFair Isle, South Lighthouse


Full moon rising
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Full moon rising

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