SUMMARY SYNOPSIS DAYS 1-3 DAYS 4-10 Disclaimer CHARTS Fair Isle landscape pictures available for online purchase at http://www.davewheelerphotography.com Link on home or landscape gallery page. Follow Dawadderman     Facebook Twitter   Noctilucent cloud and the Simmer Dim 23.53 UTC 25/06/09 NEW FAIR ISLE BIRD OBSERVATORY APPEAL 10-Day Weather Outlook for Shetland, Orkney and Caithness Tuesday 24 November, 2009 11:18 All times on this site UTC

SUMMARY
A bright start, but rain spreading north during the afternoon to reach all areas soon after dark, as SE'ly winds increase strong to gale. Clearer, showery conditions following overnight as winds veer S to SW'ly.

Frequent blustery showers with the chance of hail and thunder on Wednesday, accompanied by SW'ly gales. Little change is expected through Thursday. A colder day with showers turning wintry on Friday, as strong SW'ly winds veer NW'ly. Cold over the weekend, with showers - wintry at times - becoming more isolated as winds ease.

Remaining unsettled and windy at times through the further outlook period, with showers - occasionally wintry - or longer periods of rain.

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GENERAL SITUATION AND SYNOPSIS
06:00 UTC 24/11/2009
A ridge, between a receding depression over the Norwegian Sea and one approaching from the Atlantic, is now declining over northeast Scotland. As it does so, the moderate SW to W'ly airflow will back SE'ly and strengthen, as the deepening depression to the west drives fronts north over Scotland. The occluded fronts will clear the Northern Isles tonight.

The parent low, moving north close to Shetland, will maintain a very strong and showery SW'ly airflow during Wednesday and Thursday, with a strong and showery SW to W'ly airflow veering NW to N'ly later on as the low drifts east close to Shetland. Low pressure, forecast to lie over the North Sea, is likely to maintain a N'ly airflow during the weekend and into the start of the following week.

A ridge may give a quiet spell midweek, with another Atlantic depression - predicted to be moving east towards the British Isles - bringing further unsettled and windy conditions to end next week.

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FORECAST FOR NEXT THREE DAYS
Confidence level: Weather type - medium/high. Timing – medium.
Temperatures rising to about 9° Celsius  by day, falling to 6° Celsius overnight.

TUESDAY 24th: A bright start, perhaps with some early sunshine - more especially for Shetland - but also the chance of the odd shower. However cloud will thicken during the morning, with rain reaching Orkney around or shortly after midday, Fair Isle around sunset and the remainder of Shetland by early evening. F3-4 SW to W'ly winds - backing SE'ly - will freshen to become F6-7 and locally gale F8 with the arrival of the rain. During the evening the rain will become lighter and patchy across Orkney, but persist over Shetland until the early hours when all areas will see drier, clearer conditions with a few showers. Winds, easing F5-6 for a time, increasing F6 to gale F8 SE'ly again later.
Sea state - Moderate or rough, with a 2 to 3 metre NW'ly swell being replaced by a SE'ly wind swell.

WEDNESDAY 25th: A rather cloudy day with frequent blustery showers, heavy at times with hail and the chance of thunder. SW'ly winds will be F6-7 across Shetland, but F6 to gale F8 - with the chance of severe-gale F9 - over Orkney.
Sea state - Moderate or rough, with a decaying 2 to 3 metre SE'ly swell replaced by a 2 to 3 metre SW'ly swell.

THURSDAY 26th: Little change, with further frequent, blustery showers and a few brighter spells. F6-7, locally gale F8, SW'ly winds.
Sea state - Rough or very rough, with a 4 to 6 metre SW'ly swell.

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TEN DAY OUTLOOK
Confidence level: Weather type – medium/low. Timing – low/medium.
Temperatures in the daily range 10° Celsius down to about 6° Celsius at first. Possibly a degree or so cooler later.

FRIDAY 27th: A colder day with the showers turning wintry, as fresh to strong SW to W'ly winds veer NW'ly.

SATURDAY 28th - SUNDAY 29th: Becoming brighter with showers - possibly heavy and wintry - becoming more scattered as NW'ly winds ease

MONDAY 30th - FRIDAY 4th: Remaining cool and unsettled. Fresh or strong N'ly winds, with showers - occasionally wintry - at first. Perhaps a quieter frosty spell mid-week, then rain or showers and strong to gale S'ly winds later

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DISCLAIMER
This outlook is based on an appraisal of the charts and ensembles from GFS, ECMWF, UKMO and FAX available via the internet, and over 30 years of local weather experience.

Be aware that the weather over north-west Europe - and especially around the Northern Isles - is part of an ever-changing and dynamic system. Therefore regard the 10-Day Outlook' as a guide only - there are times when any outlook going beyond about 36 to 48 hours is likely to prove unreliable.

Always check the latest forecast from the UK Met Office before undertaking any weather-dependant activity.

All forecasts are for planning purposes only.

Neither Dave Wheeler, nor any employee of Fair Isle Weather Services, accepts any liability for the accuracy of this forecast.

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Please note that this page is usually updated every day (around mid-morning) but on occasions updates may be irregular. A daily service by e-mail is available, but is charged for.

If you wish you can have the 10-day Outlook e-mailed to you free once a week (usually at the weekend). Please contact Fair Isle Weather Services for further information.

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Fair Isle, South Lighthouse

Full moon rising
1700 UTC 25th October

16th December 2006, 0904z
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9) Looking NNE.
Showery SW to W'ly airflow
Temp 6.1°C, dew point 1.6°C, wind 240° 17kt

24th May 2006, 1300z
Cumulus mediocris developing over Fair Isle
and forming a 'clouc street' downwind
of the Isle (CL2)
Temp 9.0°C, dew point 4.5°C, wind F2 S'ly.

24th May 2006, 2001z
Stratocumulus formed from the
spreading out of cumulus (CL4)
Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly

24th May 2006, 2016z
Approaching shower.
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9)
Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly

24th May 2006, 2034z
Showers over Shetland and passing through
the Fair Isle Channel. Cumulonimbus with anvil
Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly

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Aurora glow, looking north towards Ward Hill
(l ights of Setter croft foreground)
Photograph taken about 2100UTC 18th October 2007
Pentax K10D with Pentax DA 16-45mm F4 w/a lens set at 16mm
Exposure 193 seconds at F5.6 ISO100

AuroraWatch www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/aurorawatch/

WWW www.northisles-weather.co.uk

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