As I will be away from Fair Isle.
Saturday 4th October
until Monday 3rd November
updates to this page will be infrequent during this period.

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SUMMARY
A bright and chilly start this morning, the cloud then thickening with rain spreading from the west by the afternoon. S’ly winds will increase strong to locally gale-force across the more exposed areas. After further rain this evening scattered showers and clear spells following overnight. Winds veering SW’ly and easing fresh to strong.

Bright on Thursday with scattered showers. Fresh SW’ly winds easing moderate across Orkney.

Friday and Saturday bright and breezy with blustery showers and fresh to strong SW’ly winds. Sunday morning wet and windy then becoming drier and brighter for the afternoon as strong to gale force S’ly winds veer SW’ly.

The first part of next week perhaps bright with showers with fresh SW’ly winds. The remainder of the week perhaps drier with easing winds tending more W’ly or NW’ly in direction, these then backing SE’ly and freshening later the following weekend.

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GENERAL SITUATION & SYNOPSIS
06:00 UTC 22/10/2014

With an anticyclone to the southwest of the British Isles a strong SW’ly airflow covers northern Scotland. This will back S’ly today and strengthen as a ridge declines eastwards and a depression near Iceland drives fronts eastwards. These will clear the Northern Isles early tonight, bringing a return to a strong and showery SW’ly airflow.

The situation will then remain more or less unchanged through the remainder this week. A new and deep Icelandic depression is forecast to drive further fronts eastwards next weekend. These will be accompanied by a strengthening S to SE’ly airflow.

During the course of next week low pressure in the Iceland region is expected to be replaced by relatively high pressure bringing less unsettled conditions to the Northern Isles as a strong SW’ly airflow weakens and becomes W or NW’ly in direction. This may weaken later with Atlantic low pressure introducing a SE’ly airflow across the area by the following weekend.

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FORECAST FOR NEXT THREE DAYS
Daytime temperatures rising to 12° or 13° Celsius with overnight lows falling to around 8° Celsius.

WEDNESDAY 22nd: After a bright and chilly start, with some sunny spells over Shetland, cloud will thicken with rain spreading from the west to reach Orkney by late morning and Shetland during the afternoon. S’ly winds will increase F6-7, perhaps locally gale F8 across the more exposed headlands and hills. A cloudy evening with further rain, this easing overnight with scattered showers and clear spells. Winds veering SW’ly and easing F5-6.
Sea State: Moderate to rough, with a 2 to 4 metre SW’ly wind-swell. Highest in the west.

THURSDAY 23rd:
Bright with scattered showers and sunny spells. F5-6 SW’ly winds easing F4 across Orkney.
Sea State: Moderate to rough, with a 2 to 4 metre SW’ly wind-swell. Highest in the west.

FRIDAY 24th: Bright and breezy with sunny spells and blustery showers. Feeling a little chilly in F5-6 SW’ly winds.
Sea State: Rough to very rough, with a 3 to 5 metre SW’ly wind-swell. Highest in the west.

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TEN DAY OUTLOOK
Daytime temperatures rising to around 12° or 13° Celsius. Overnight lows falling to around 8° Celsius.

SATURDAY 25th: Bright with sunny spells and showers. Fresh to strong SW’ly winds. A cloudier night with rain arriving later.
Sea State: Rough to very rough, with a 3 to 5 metre S to SW’ly wind-swell. Highest in the west.

SUNDAY 26th:
The morning wet and windy, then becoming drier and brighter for the afternoon as strong to gale-force S’ly winds veer SW’ly.
Sea State: Rough to high, with a 4 to 7 metre S to SW'ly wind-swell. Highest in the west.

MONDAY 27th: Bright with sunny spells and some showers. Fresh to strong SW’ly winds.
Sea State: Possibly moderate to rough in the east, with a 2 to 3 metre SW’ly wind-swell. In the west rough, and very rough in the far west, with a 3 to 5 metre SW’ly wind-swell.

TUESDAY 28th – SUNDAY 2nd
Perhaps bright with sunny spells and showers with fresh SW’ly winds at first, Then becoming drier with easing winds tending more W’ly or even NW’ly in direction, these possibly backing SE’ly and freshening later the following weekend.


10-Day Weather Outlook
for Shetland, Orkney and Caithness

Page updated
Wednesday 22 October, 2014 12:24

WEATHER HEADLINES

Today

Starting dry and bright, then rain. Becoming windy.

  Tonight

Rain clearing to scattered showers. Winds easing a touch.

  Tomorrow

Bright and breezy with scattered showers.

  Days 3 5

Mainly bright and breezy with blustery showers, but rain and gales later.

Days 6-10

Perhaps drier and less windy.

 

FAIR ISLE WEATHER DATA
via WeatherCast

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Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9)
16th December 2006, 0904z
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9) Looking NNE
.
Showery SW to W'ly airflow
Temp 6.1°C, dew point 1.6°C, wind 240° 17kt

Cumulus mediocris developing over Fair Isle
24th May 2006, 1300z
Cumulus mediocris developing over Fair Isle
and forming a 'clouc street' downwind
of the Isle (CL2)
Temp 9.0°C, dew point 4.5°C, wind F2 S'ly.
Stratocumulus formed from the spreading out of cumulus
24th May 2006, 2001z
Stratocumulus formed from the
spreading out of cumulus (CL4)

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
Approaching shower. Cumulonimbus with anvil
24th May 2006, 2016z
Approaching shower.
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9)

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
Showers over Shetland and passing through the Fair Isle Channel
24th May 2006, 2034z
Showers over Shetland and passing through
the Fair Isle Channel. Cumulonimbus with anvil

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly

 

Fair Isle, South LighthouseFair Isle, South Lighthouse


Full moon rising
1700 UTC 25th October

Full moon rising


SYNOPSIS DAYS 1-3 DAYS 4-10
Disclaimer CHARTS


Shetland Weather Review
2004-2010
 

 

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DISCLAIMER
This outlook is based on an appraisal of the charts and ensembles from GFS, ECMWF, UKMO and FAX available via the internet, and over 30 years of local weather experience.

Be aware that the weather over north-west Europe - and especially around the Northern Isles - is part of an ever-changing and dynamic system. Therefore regard the 10-Day Outlook' as a guide only - there are times when any outlook going beyond about 36 to 48 hours is likely to prove unreliable.

Always check the latest forecast from the UK Met Office before undertaking any weather-dependant activity.

All forecasts are for planning purposes only.

Neither Dave Wheeler, nor any employee of Fair Isle Weather Services, accepts any liability for the accuracy of this forecast.


Please note that this page is usually updated every day (around mid-morning) but on occasions updates may be irregular. A daily service by e-mail is available, but is charged for.

If you wish you can have the 10-day Outlook e-mailed to you free once a week (usually at the weekend). Please contact Fair Isle Weather Services for further information
.


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aurura glow

Aurora glow, looking north towards Ward Hill
(l ights of Setter croft foreground)
Photograph taken about 2100UTC 18th October 2007
Pentax K10D with Pentax DA 16-45mm F4 w/a lens set at 16mm
Exposure 193 seconds at F5.6 ISO100

AuroraWatch www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/aurorawatch/

 

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