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10-Day Weather Outlook
for Shetland, Orkney and Caithness
Thursday 29 July, 2010 11:29 BST

 

 

SUMMARY
Some brighter spells today - otherwise mostly cloudy - with the chance some patches of light rain or drizzle. Cloudy tonight with a little drizzle possible. Moderate or light N to NW’ly winds throughout.

Friday bright at times with mainly light winds. Mostly dry in Shetland, but rain edging into Orkney later.

Cloudy with outbreaks of rain on Saturday. Misty at times with a light E’ly wind. Sunday often cloudy with showers and a NW’ly breeze developing. Drier and brighter with light winds on Monday.

The rest of next week perhaps changeable, with showers or longer spells of rain and moderate or fresh W to NW’ly winds.

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GENERAL SITUATION AND SYNOPSIS
06:00 UTC 29
/07/2010
With an area of low pressure over southern Scandinavia - and an anticyclone slow-moving to the southwest of the British Isles - a moist NW’ly airflow covers northeast Scotland. Little change is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Later on Friday another shallow depression - drifting east to the south of Iceland – will push an occluded front northeast over Scotland. This is expected to be slow-moving near Orkney on Saturday, as the filling low tracks east just to the south. A NW’ly airflow - expected to develop on Sunday as pressure builds to the west – will ease on Monday, as a ridge swings east over northern Scotland.

The present prognosis is for an anticyclone to remain slow-moving to the west of the British Isles for much of next week, bringing a W to NW’ly airflow. Fronts, brushing around the high, may well affect the Northern Isles from time to time.

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10-Day Weather Outlook
for Shetland, Orkney and Caithness

Page updated
Thursday 29 July, 2010 11:29 BST
Today

PATCHY DRIZZLE, BRIGHTER SPELLS

  Tonight

CLOUDY, SOME DRIZZLE

  Tomorrow

SOME BRIGHTNESS, RAIN LATER

  Days 2-5

RAIN THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS

Days 6-10

CHANGEABLE

SYNOPSIS DAYS 1-3 DAYS 4-10
Disclaimer CHARTS


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Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9)
16th December 2006, 0904z
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9) Looking NNE
.
Showery SW to W'ly airflow
Temp 6.1°C, dew point 1.6°C, wind 240° 17kt

Cumulus mediocris developing over Fair Isle
24th May 2006, 1300z
Cumulus mediocris developing over Fair Isle
and forming a 'clouc street' downwind
of the Isle (CL2)
Temp 9.0°C, dew point 4.5°C, wind F2 S'ly.
Stratocumulus formed from the spreading out of cumulus
24th May 2006, 2001z
Stratocumulus formed from the
spreading out of cumulus (CL4)

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
Approaching shower. Cumulonimbus with anvil
24th May 2006, 2016z
Approaching shower.
Cumulonimbus with anvil (CL9)

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
Showers over Shetland and passing through the Fair Isle Channel
24th May 2006, 2034z
Showers over Shetland and passing through
the Fair Isle Channel. Cumulonimbus with anvil

Temp 7 °C, dew point 5 °C, wind F3 W'ly
 

FORECAST FOR NEXT THREE DAYS
Confidence level: Weather type – medium/high. Timing – medium.
Temperatures ranging from a high of 14° to 16° Celsius, down to a low of about 11° Celsius.

THURSDAY 29th: Rather cloudy, with the chance of some patches of light rain or drizzle. However, it will tend to become drier and brighter by the afternoon with the chance of a few sunny spells, the best of these most likely across Shetland. Cloudy this evening and overnight, with a little mainly light drizzle possible. N to NW’ly winds remaining F2-4 throughout.
Sea state – Mostly moderate or slight, with a 1 to 2 metre NW’ly wind-swell. To the east of Shetland and Orkney moderate, with a 2 metre N to NW’ly wind-swell.

FRIDAY 30th: After a rather grey start, the cloud will thin and break during the morning to give some sunny spells. A F2-4 NW’ly breeze falling light and variable. During the afternoon cloud will thicken once more, with Orkney seeing some rain - accompanied by misty conditions - spreading from the southwest later, as a light F2-3 SE’ly wind develops. Shetland remaining mainly dry but cloudy overnight, a light to moderate SE’ly wind perhaps bringing low cloud and mist on to eastern coasts and hills.
Sea state – Overnight becoming mainly slight, with a 1 metre NW’ly wind-swell. During the evening becoming SE’ly.

SATURDAY 31st: By morning, outbreaks of rain are expected to have extended north across Shetland, although it is possible the North Isles will remain mostly dry. Misty at times, especially over the hills and – with a F3-4 E’ly wind - down the east side.
Sea state – Mainly slight, with a 1 metre E to NE’ly wind-swell around Shetland and slight or moderate south of Fair Isle, with a 1 to 2 metre W or NW’ly wind-swell. During the evening becoming generally slight or moderate, with a 1 to 2 metre N’ly wind-swell.

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TEN DAY OUTLOOK
Confidence level: Weather type – medium/low. Timing – low.
Temperatures ranging from a daytime high of 13° to 16° Celsius down to an overnight low of about 10° Celsius.

SUNDAY 1st: Rather cloudy at times, with showers or longer periods of rain. Mainly moderate NW’ly winds, but increasing fresh at times around the north of Shetland.
Sea state – Slight or moderate, with a 1 to 2 metre N’ly wind-swell later becoming NW’ly. Around the north of Shetland increasing moderate, with a 2 metre NW’ly wind-swell.

MONDAY 2nd: A mainly dry and bright day, with some sunny or clear spells. Moderate NW’ly winds backing light W’ly and later SW’ly as cloud thickens, bringing the chance of overnight rain or drizzle.

TUESDAY 3rd – SUNDAY 7th: Changeable, with showers or longer spells of rain and moderate or fresh W to NW’ly winds.

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DISCLAIMER
This outlook is based on an appraisal of the charts and ensembles from GFS, ECMWF, UKMO and FAX available via the internet, and over 30 years of local weather experience.

Be aware that the weather over north-west Europe - and especially around the Northern Isles - is part of an ever-changing and dynamic system. Therefore regard the 10-Day Outlook' as a guide only - there are times when any outlook going beyond about 36 to 48 hours is likely to prove unreliable.

Always check the latest forecast from the UK Met Office before undertaking any weather-dependant activity.

All forecasts are for planning purposes only.

Neither Dave Wheeler, nor any employee of Fair Isle Weather Services, accepts any liability for the accuracy of this forecast.


Please note that this page is usually updated every day (around mid-morning) but on occasions updates may be irregular. A daily service by e-mail is available, but is charged for.

If you wish you can have the 10-day Outlook e-mailed to you free once a week (usually at the weekend). Please contact Fair Isle Weather Services for further information
.


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aurura glow

Aurora glow, looking north towards Ward Hill
(l ights of Setter croft foreground)
Photograph taken about 2100UTC 18th October 2007
Pentax K10D with Pentax DA 16-45mm F4 w/a lens set at 16mm
Exposure 193 seconds at F5.6 ISO100

AuroraWatch www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/aurorawatch/

Fair Isle, South LighthouseFair Isle, South Lighthouse


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